One of the few traditional Conservatives to have served on the Tory front bench under Cameron, Paterson was Secretary of State for Northern Ireland before being promoted to the more high profile role of Secretary of State for Defra.

Candidate of the day

Owen Paterson

One day to go and Sir John Major has weighed in. “Labour divides to rule. To win votes they will turn rich against poor; north against south; worker against boss." We hope we don't wake up with them on Friday.

Hero of the day

Sir John Major

Another awful Labour woman. The fact Ed Miliband’s carved his pledges in stone doesn't mean he might not break them, campaign chief Lucy Powell has said.

Villain of the day

Lucy Powell

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THE REAL CONSERVATIVE MANIFESTO

Back marriage. Restore grammar schools. Leave the EU.

Leslie Loftis: Trump’s troops will rage, rage at the dying of the Right

I am writing this on Sunday evening before Election Day. I just finished binge watching the first episodes of The Crown, Netflix’s new historical drama about Queen Elizabeth II. (Yes, it is the one in which John Lithgow plays Churchill. Complain if you must, but it is well done so far.)  Traditions and peaceful transfers of power are on my mind. Only this time my mind is not calm.

This lull, when there is no more time for opposition research dumps and no more polls to count except the real one, it feels like the quiet before the storm.

Americans are assured to wake on Wednesday facing the prospect of a presidency that does not respect the rule of law. Both candidates only understand power and the will to use it. They see constitutional restrictions on power as nuisances to be ignored for whatever greater good they have in their own minds.

No matter who wins, America faces a long four years. This long term struggle, however, is not the one that worries me tonight.

Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump supporters anticipate a win. One set will be shocked, devastated, and angry, very very angry.

That anger will be greatest in the event of a Clinton win. This is not necessarily because of temperament of either side but because of expectations. While the Clinton supporters can look to better metrics, they are not nearly so confident as Trump supporters. Furthermore, Clinton is not their base-anger candidate. That was Bernie Sanders who Clinton and the party machine vanquished months ago. The frustrated Democratic base has recently tasted defeat and had time to come to terms with another establishment presidency.

In sharp contrast, the Republican Party’s populist anger candidate is their nominee. A well-spring of anger is hidden by hope at the moment. And opportunists have fueled that hope.

Click farm websites and captured news organisations like Fox and Breitbart have given his supporters and overly optimistic view of Trump's chances. They are loaded with misleading stories and cherry-picked polls. My personal favourite was a combination of these tricks. Various sites ran a story about Trump’s lead in Florida early voting ...before Florida started early voting. The actual data was on assumed party affiliation based upon demographics of absentee ballot requests. Actual early voting analysis from Florida, however, bodes better for Clinton than Trump. (As does Nevada's early voting pattern that Romney hopefuls misread in 2012.)

In the Brexit comparison that assumes a “shy Trump” polling error, almost everyone seems to have forgotten that Trump underperformed or tied his polls in the primaries. There wasn't a shy Trump effect then, and there is little reason beyond hope to think there is one in the general. In fact, here in Texas, I see far more hints of a “shy Hillary” vote. If she has one and the women and Hispanic Trump refusal is higher than the models predict, then Tuesday could be a short night.

Yet, a Clinton win, close or otherwise, will not mitigate the fact that Clinton corruption is real. It won't be just sour grapes to lament her election. The scandals never end with the Clintons. And she is divisive. She is far more likely to escalate conflict than diffuse it.

The gloating that may come on Tuesday night, I'm trying to brace myself for the gloating. But others aren't. They know -- know! -- that Trump is going to win a landslide.

Both sides in this election see the other as grave threats to our republic -- and for the record, I don’t think either side is wrong. But one side is going to lose this election. Most likely, the losers will be Trump supporters who are least prepared for the outcome.

Shock and revulsion make a potent combination. I worry that this will not be the peaceful election evening in America.

(Image: Gage Skidmore)

Leslie Loftis

  • Revolutionary times indeed….if Clinton wins, it will be down to a combination of biased media propaganda and possible vote rigging. Trump supporters, many of them armed, won’t like this at all. Clinton will then give amnesty to millions of illegals which might just make a future Republican Party win statistically impossible. As this becomes apparent armed Trump supporters will become further angered.

    The Left started the culture war against Western Civilisation some sixty years ago. It is a real war and it means the end of traditional, Euro-ethnic, free market economy America – and the West. The battles have been small but continuous and the “right” have lost all of them. If Americans wish to survive this century they have only one option (assuming Clinton wins) and that is to forget about the myriad battles lost over the decades and concentrate on winning the last, final battle that the Left has forced them into fighting. I predict this battle will be violent and will take place within the next 5-10 years.

    • Duke_Bouvier

      If armed Trump supporters get violent rather than take any actual evidence of actual electoral fraud to actual courts then they deserve the full weightof armed police and/or national guard response.

      • You are very wrong if you think the Police and the National Guard will fire on Trump supporters to protect Clinton.

      • I agree with you. But my point is not about what happens in the next few days. It is about the next 5-10 years. If the democratic process is removed from the Republican right (via the importation of nation destroying, economy destroying illegals and third-worlders) it leaves an impossible position. Do the “right” helplessly watch their country being destroyed without a democratic defence, or do they take matters into their own hands? Such a scenario is on the cards for much of the West, but the difference in America is the Second Amendment which was never about rednecks with guns, as per the leftist propaganda, and always about resisting a tyrannical government. The Left’s war against the West has been building very slowly, but is now coming to a violent head in America.

        • nanumaga

          There are many parallels with France where the fear of ‘remplacement’ of the culture and traditions through immigration and multicultural/Left theology is driving voters towards the NF. This isn’t going to end happily either.

          • And don’t forget Germany….which is looking at a terrible next five years. People have trouble understanding the demographic disaster heading our way. They say “What is wrong with allowing in 1 million migrants when the total population is 81 million?”

            What is wrong, is that out of 81 milion people, German males aged between 18-35 only number 6 million. When 75% of the 1.5 million migrants Germany accepted in 2015 are Muslim males aged 18-35, and will continue to imported by Merkel this year and next year…it becomes a civilisational ending problem. Young German males will be outnumbered by young Muslim males before 2020. And there will of course be cataclysmic ramifications over this unprecedented situation.

            I wrote a rather long article about this the other day, called “The Genocidal Left’s War Against Germany” which can be found via Google for anyone interested.

        • You know, it just struck me that David Cameron may have done the UK a great service. In allowing the Brexit referendum he gave this same dispute a chance to get out in the open, because the UK has the same problem with immigration we have, and here the debate is too suppressed to be fairly fought with words. For now, anyway.

          Yesterday, I wrote in connection with our election this:

          “Out here along the Oregon Trail, where I live, it used to be said, “The sick never started, and the weak died along the way.” That’s pretty much America, right there. It is not now, and never was, a country for the weak. Those people that braved the Atlantic in small wooden ships, in steerage, however, they got here really did not expect to find the streets paved with gold. A promised land it may have been, but it has never been a land of milk and honey. It’s a country built on sacrifice and very hard work, as well as personal responsibility for you and yours.”

          That still exists here, just like the ruts from the Oregon Trail. It’s a large part of who we are. Those who dared it all, on an ocean crossing, to live the dream. Don’t undervalue it.

    • Dave S

      There is a real culture war and there are only a few, mostly on the conservative side, who understand that it is going on and just how dangerous it can get.
      Once a situation becomes existential for enough people- in this case the conservative American and the indigenous European then reason goes and fear and anger takes over.
      It has always been like this in human affairs.
      The cultural war against the West is marked by two main factors. An embrace of unreality by the destroyers coupled with passivity by those affected.
      So far the left has been all too successful in it’s aims .
      All the factors that lead to cultural disintegration and chaos are now in place.

    • digitaurus

      If Clinton wins, it will be down to Trump’s gratuitous insults of hispanic people and women – two enormous demographic groups – coupled with his party’s terrible relations in recent decades with the black / African American community and the Labour unions (these latter problems admittedly not Trump’s fault). Clinton was a terrible candidate. A banana could have defeated her. Even Jeb Bush would have managed it.

      Your prediction of armed insurrection seems unlikely to me. The military establishment is powerful in the USA (much more so than most Europeans realise) and institutionally conservative – as are the security services (FBI, CIA, NSA etc.). I doubt they have much love for Donald Trump, however, who seems to epitomise the type of character that career military personnel despise (playboy son of a billionaire who skipped out of serving his country by any means available) and a man who displays contempt for the military’s efforts over the last 15 years. So Trumpistas will be getting no support from the people with the big guns. I predict a pathetic damp squib of a battle.

      So where next? The Right Wing Establishment will turn on Trump and his supporters. He will be erased from the party’s history. Trump will re-establish himself as a ‘celebrity’. His businesses will probably fall apart in the next property meltdown and nobody will trouble themselves to rescue him this time. His time is past.

      Unless of course he wins today…

      • I think he will win. But if he doesn’t, he will have nothing to do with the violent revolution over the next few years. It will be entirely out of his hands. I know of a lot of people who are talking seriously about real revolution in America. They are connected, they have money, they have guns and they are already organising. I wouldn’t be so quick in describing them as a potential damp squib – or even a damp squid as recently stated by a posturing, semi-educated Useful Idiot on the BBC the other night!

        • digitaurus

          Haha – I quite like ‘damp squid’.

          We agree that if there is an armed insurrection it won’t be led by Trump. Is there a geographic centre to this revolution or is it another ‘digital age’ geographically diffuse revolt, pace the Anonymous / Occupy movements?

          • I don’t want to say too much about it, but it will have nothing to do with university campuses or the right-wing equivalent of Occupy. Think Texas, Tennessee and the rest of the “flyover states” and think resistance from Republican Senators and rich individuals, all the way down to grass-roots America and gun clubs.

          • digitaurus

            Interesting. The Koch brothers? Thiel? I think the Randians are too smart to get caught up in a pitchfork revolution, let alone slumming it with ‘grass-roots America’ and gun clubs. I don’t know the scene well enough to know who else has the clout and the motivation.

        • Nor would I, especially in a country with a tradition of independent thought – and action. Not to mention something like 500 to 600 milion reasonably modern and serviceable weapons, and a strong corps of military veterans. This is the one scenario where the military is in doubt, although the higher command isn’t. I think most would do what they are told for a time, but only for a time. I certainly hope we don’t find out.

          And by the way, if we can’t win in Afghanistan, why would you think winning in America will be easier. One could profitably read Lord Tarleton on that.

    • Adam Peak

      I agree with your analysis.

    • Al_Watt

      Agree with the analysis, but you forgot Soros funded agitation pushing for the violence
      to begin; But our American cousins remember the horror of their Civil War, the first war in which Gattling guns were used to horrendous effect, and they won’t start shooting lightly.

      They benefit from their written Constitution effectively giving them the mandate and resposiblity to remove a tyrannical regime via a state militia marching on Washington. So long before this gets “hot”, legally there’s the possibility of Red States seceding from the Union to extricate themselves from Federal Law, the Oathkeeper Movement’s behaviour, and most recently Steve’s Pieczenik’s recent intervention on behalf of the intel community.

      Even if they do push Hillary over the line, it is still the end of their cabal.

    • warmingmyth

      “possible vote rigging”
      “Certain” vote rigging is nearer the reality. George Soros owns voting machines in 16 states. There is software called ‘fraction magic’ which can hack a number voting machines in some critical States producing fabricated results. This is all on top of overt voter intimidation, illegal immigrant voting and other more traditional abuses.

  • Thomas Katz

    Over 300 million people, and the choice is, between “Bad or Badder” even worse I still think “anyone but” Clinton

  • Colkitto03

    What this election cycle has exposed in the failure of the fourth estate in the USA. The social contact between the people and the news and press media has been shown to be in tatters. I’m am not saying they should have supported Trump, that is not the point.
    Im saying that they have lost contact with the concerns and issues of a huge amount of the American public. Specifically certain demographic groups. Instead of holding the establishment to account they have joined them. Instead of championing the citizens they chosen a path to ‘educate’ them. The ‘flyover states’ are a land of mystery to American mainstream media.
    In fact if that social contact had been maintained Trump would probably not have had a shot. American journalists created Trump but not just in the last year.
    They have spent 20 years creating the vacuum he has stepped into.

    • This is even more obvious in the coverage. Their knowledge, their assumptions about what just happened and why.

      • Best coverage I’ve seen is from BBC, they’re a bit shocked, but pretty rational. Maybe they learned something from Brexit!

  • BASKET OF DEPLORABLES

    demand freedom for the confederacy if clinton wins

  • JB

    “That anger will be greatest in the event of a Clinton win.”

    Possibly, though I think visible signs of anger will be greatest if Trump wins. The left are used to employing political violence, and there will be immediate rioting.

    If Hillary wins, I think Trump supporters will seethe and wait for something to turn up such as a challenge over voter fraud, or some kind of legal action over one of Hillary’s many scandals. If nothing happens, things will become unpredictable and possibly ugly as ‘Traditional America’ realises its last of chance of saving itself, via the voting booth, has gone.

    • The Banana

      Well, /that/ sounds like a possible Brexit scenario.

    • Opposite. Everyone knows it is coming now. Have for a few hours. They aren’t at seething yet. Shock and anger. But not active. At least in media and at the party.

      • JB

        Why opposite? Hillary/Bernie supporters instigated violence at Trump rallies. And then there’s the matter of ‘Black Lives Matter’. I don’t see why they wouldn’t cause violence now that Trump has won. I hope there won’t be violence but it seems inevitable to me.

        There are currently reports of rioting in San Francisco and students blocking the streets in Portland, Oregon. Not much information.

        Obviously we can’t now how Trump supporters would have reacted in the event of a Hillary win.

  • James Chilton

    It’s been too late since the days when Clinton and Trump were nominated. This election is just a holding operation until 2020. The American political class have got the candidates they deserve and the people will suffer for it.

    Assuming the political landscape is still recognisable after four years of partisan meddling by Hillary (who I believe will win), perhaps the Republican party will have a credible presidential candidate lined up next time who can win and repair the damage.

    On the other hand, perhaps we really are on the point of revolutionary changes in Western societies and the “old politics” is done for.

  • EUman remains

    Insightful piece by a Democrat pollster takes a broader view than this article. It is not a matter of left v right, or of identity politics, but a growing resentment at a self-serving political class. Trump may not win, but the size of his vote should wake up the establishment to this seething anger (which cannot dissipate simply because Clinton clings on). http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/11/07/patrick-caddell-real-election-surprise-uprising-american-people.html

  • Timmy

    At least if Clinton wins we’ll never have to hear about the fictional glass ceiling again.

  • Phil R

    Democracy has been a disaster for normal families in the West.

    Also a disaster for Government

  • John Thomas

    “America faces a long four years” – indeed, but hopefully it will mean we never have to hear from that ***** man Obama again. There’s always a silver lining …

    • Timmy

      Dollar says Hillary puts him on the supreme court.

      • TJB

        Bet she doesn’t 😀

      • James60498 .

        No she won’t.

        But there is every chance that he might save her from Court

  • RascallyNeerdowell

    Clinton will win, she won’t be as bad as even her own supporters predict and she’ll be the American David Cameron. The flawed last representative of a flawed run of liberal (English not American usage) leaders whom we’ll nevertheless miss when they’re gone.

  • ethanedwards2002

    Read the emails. Clinton didn’t beat Sanders. He had lost the moment he stood. The Dem nomination was fixed. Shame because even though he had some bad policies he’s an honest man . The American people have already been hoodwinked.

  • God grant me a pro-manufacturing, anti-globalist, anti-anti-Russian President of the United States. But not this one. I don’t want Trump to win. I don’t want either of them to win. Sadly, though, one of them is going to win. What if it were him?

    The Democratic Party would have been defeated in the person of the most economically neoliberal and internationally neoconservative nominee imaginable. It would need to move, as a matter of the utmost urgency, away from the excessive focus on identity issues, and towards the recognition that those existed only within the overarching and undergirding context of the struggle against economic inequality and in favour of international peace.

    We are way ahead of that over here, of course. Well, almost everyone whom it concerns is, anyway. There are still problems with the Parliamentary Labour Party and The Guardian. But is the Parliamentary Labour Party or The Guardian still a thing? Barely, even now. And not at all, if the mighty Clintons had been laid low by, all people, Donald Trump.

    There would be no political lessons to be learned, however, from a Clinton victory. “People won’t vote for a belching gorilla” would merely have been confirmed as something that we already knew, anyway.

  • Okay, lots of surprise. Not that this wasn’t contemplated. I followed FiveThirtyEight for the general and this was one of the scenarios. It just was an unlikely one. I’m staying up to watch Clinton’s concession. (I’m not a Trump supporter, but I’m not disappointed by Clinton’s loss and will want to watch that.) Many thoughts that I will have here on Thursday. Short version: the media commentators are seeing the wrong connections, learning the wrong lessons. (It was Obamacare, not the email scandals that moved at the last and saw third party objectors resign themselves to Trump.) And we have a big clue on the realignment we’ve been anticipating. But Thursday.

    • TJB

      She didn’t even have the grace and respect for the nation to offer a concession speech.

      • Kay Dames

        She didn’t have the respect for her supporters either. Not even a thank you.

    • Nick

      Hi Leslie,
      Predicting the future is hard and you had me convinced yesterday that my prediction that Trump would win was based on misguided information.
      I do think it would be right to go and look at the analyses of those who did predict this outcome and assess their claims against what actually happened.
      I would be interested to know how many African Americans voted Trump following the lead of these two ladies https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfOgok0kcE0
      One of the most interesting stats was that 70% of Americans feel that the USA is going wrong yet the Clinton campaign was based on business-as-usual. Polling showed much lower commitment among Democrat voters than Trump supporters.

    • mjollnir

      I didn’t find the outcome surprising at all. This is the logical outcome of a people finally waking up to the fact that its (evil, nihilist, self-serving and decadent) ruling elite despises them and wants their culture deleted from history. Funnily enough, even the most placid of folk take a dim view of those who want their culture deleted from history!

  • Raddiy

    Be careful Leslie you are sounding a bit like an ‘expert’.

  • Philip Meikle

    The fact she did not publicly concede and also conceded after letting her supports know that they would let them know her decision in the morning says a lot about her character and helps explain why she lost.

    • ethanedwards2002

      Yep she’s a wrong un alright. That’s why I bet on Trump to win on the 8th October. Just collected …sweeeet!
      I love the taste of bitter luvvie tears in the morning…..smells like…VICTORY!