TCW’s data analysis summary of the MHRA’s latest Yellow Card update reveals a dramatic (x4) increase in fatalities in the reports filed in just the last four weeks.
Are these booster-related? We will be investigating further over the coming weeks.
We found an overall increase of 1,355 adverse event reports filed in the last four weeks.
MHRA Yellow Card reporting summary up to October 25 2023
New interactive format data
Adult & Child – Primary, Third Dose & Boosters (mono/bivalent)
Government data (archived) up to September 2022 showed53.8million people had received a 1st dose UK-wide.
By week ending November 3, 2023, 63.2 per cent (7,050,519 out of 11,164,326) of all people aged over 65 years old who are living in England have been vaccinated with an autumn 2023 booster dose. National Influenza and COVID-19 surveillance report – Week 45
Yellow Card Adverse Event Reports – 177,860 (Pfizer-mono) + 5,777 (Pfizer-bivalent) + 248,834 (AZ) + 43,075 (Moderna-mono) + 5,580 (Moderna-bivalent) + 111 (Novavax) + 2,761 (Unknown brand) = 483,998 people impacted (increase of 1,355 in 4 weeks)
Reports classified as SERIOUS* by MHRA = 74.5 per cent of all reports
125,965 (Pfizer-mono) + 4,449 (Pfizer-bivalent) + 192,823 (AZ) + 31,178 (Moderna-mono) + 4,087 (Moderna-bivalent) + 81 (Novavax) + 1,985 (Unknown) = 360,568
More than 46,569 of the above serious reports are of ‘Unknown Age’ = 12.9 per cent of all serious reports
Reports classified as Non-SERIOUS by MHRA = 25.0 per cent
51,001 (Pfizer-mono) + 1,275 (Pfizer-bivalent) + 54,594 (AZ) + 11,802 (Moderna-mono) + 1,444 (Moderna-bivalent) + 30 (Novavax) + 688 (Unknown) = 120,834
Overall 1 in 111 people injected experiences a Yellow Card adverse event (assuming one person submits only one report)
1 in 149 people injected experiences an adverse event classified as SERIOUS*
1 in 186 reports are associated with a fatality, which may be less than 10 per cent of actual figures according to MHRA
Reactions – 513,725 (Pfizer-mono) + 15,625 (Pfizer-bivalent) + 882,871 (AZ) + 141,618 (Moderna-mono) + 15,353 (Moderna-bivalent) + 322 (Novavax) + 8,437 (Unknown) = 1,577,951
Fatal – 894 (Pfizer-mono) + 53 (Pfizer-bivalent) + 1,417 (AZ) + 95 (Moderna-mono) + 49 (Moderna-bivalent) + 88 (Unknown) = 2,596 = 0.5 per cent of all reports (increase of 16 reports with fatal outcome in 4 weeks)
406 of the above fatalities are of ‘Unknown Age’ = 15.6 per cent of all fatalities, and >146 are of ‘Unknown Sex’ = 5.7 per cent of all fatalities
* MHRA definition of ‘serious’ – patient died, life threatening, hospitalisation, congenital abnormality, persistent or significant disability or capacity, deemed medically significant by MHRA medical dictionary or reporter
Full reports are here.
