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Death rates plunge but Project Fear is still on the rise


THE largely unreported positive Covid-19 trend in 2021 is manifest in the comparison between the number of infections and number of deaths with, or of, the virus. The fearmongering agenda of the government requires a focus on the number of daily infections because that allows ministers to talk about ‘thousands’. But deaths are falling much faster than infections, which means that Covid-19 is becoming a less deadly disease.

Here are the Worldometer-sourced seven-day moving average infection totals for the UK in December 2020, and then at the beginning of each month for 2021, with the seven-day moving average of deaths one month later, which is roughly the length of time from new infection to death for those who succumb. They show the falling trend in the fatality of the virus in 2021. Deaths are down 89 per cent and the death rate per new infection is down by around 80 per cent.

Even in France, where infections have doubled since December, the number of deaths has fallen.     

In Germany, where the number of infections has more than halved, deaths are down by almost 75 per cent.

It is important to make the caveat that the data will not necessarily be comparable between countries because the recording of Covid-19 deaths and the measure of infections varies. But the individual country statistics should be consistent and the broader trends comparable.

There are many possible contributions to the stark improvement, and most likely a combination is responsible. There will be fewer people vulnerable to the disease, better treatment results, population immunity must have risen, and in the UK the vaccination programme will have been making a significant statistical difference in the last two months.

This remarkable improvement should be wildly celebrated and have resulted in an acceleration of the unlocking process. Instead, and despite the vaccination of 99 per cent of the vulnerable people in the UK, we are ‘warned’ repeatedly by compliant government ministers and so-called scientists of some danger lurking round the corner which means that you damn well should remain frightened and obedient of the increasingly unnecessary rules.

There is an (often hysterically reported) increase in infections in some European countries, but if the lower fatality rate trend in the first quarter of 2021 visible in their data shown above continues, we will see a lower health impact.

Coupled with the evidence from ‘no lockdown’ areas of the world, the case for the end of lockdowns and other restrictive measures is strong for continental Europe too, yet governments are irrationally re-imposing them. The UK should have none at all, yet our agonisingly slow and destructive timetable remains unaltered.

Our government’s sickly infatuation with its own power, aided and abetted by disingenuous and immoral disease modellers pretending to be scientists, continues with the extension of powers for another six months. It deepens with ever more intrusion into the private lives of citizens.

The disingenuity is manifest in the wilful ignoring of the vastly improved Covid-19 data trends and the ignoring of non-disease outcomes which should matter as much. The immorality is laid bare in the lack of any interest in the appalling impact on society these measures are having, as has been well documented in The Conservative Woman.

The fear and panic of twelve months ago was at least understandable when it looked as if we might have an uncontrollable and deadly virus pandemic on our hands. As it turned out, it has not been deadly for the vast majority, has responded well to vaccines and better treatment, and hits hard only a well-defined group of very elderly and those with other morbidities. Many of those in the high-risk categories can shield themselves or self-isolate if they choose to.

But the relentless campaign of fear and exaggeration continues, thanks to the government’s sickly infatuation with its own power.

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Peter Lloyd
Peter Lloyd
Peter Lloyd is a former stockbroker and financial markets research professional.

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