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Tuesday, February 27, 2024
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Alarm over Scottish baby deaths

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PBLIC Health Scotland demonstrated a significant increase in neonatal deaths (in the first month of life) in 2021 but refused to investigate whether it was related to the vaccine because such an analysis ‘whilst being uninformative for public health decision making, had the potential to be used to harm vaccine confidence’. 

One Scot, who tweets here and has this substack, has persevered with FoI requests and has revealed alarming signals that Public Health Scotland chose to ignore. There was a clear rise in neonatal deaths amounting to an extra 35 dead babies which coincided exactly with when pregnant women were vaccinated.

Figure 1: Neonatal death rate per 1,000 births since 2010 with average in orange plotted against covid vaccine doses given to pregnant women

During the vaccination period (March 2021 to May 2022) Scotland had 60,169 births and based on historic rates would have expected 128 babies to die in the neonatal period, but 163 did. 

There have also been too many post-neonatal deaths (deaths in first year of life) and those have not yet settled down. Over that period (July 2021 on) there were 94,501 births. Based on historic rates 101 deaths post natal deaths would be expected, but 131 were recorded, an excess of 30 babies dying. 

Including both neonatal and postnatal deaths there have been 65 additional deaths. Over the period of interest there were 45,098 doses of covid vaccine given. If the extra deaths were all due to the covid vaccines, that would equate to a risk of one extra death for every 690 doses administered.

Despite numerous FoI requests and involvement of the Information Commissioner’s Office, data on the vaccine status of the mothers of the dead babies has not been forthcoming. 

Table 1: Calculations of excess neonatal and postnatal deaths 

It is possible to cross-check this data with data from other sources. National Records of Scotland (NRS) publishes deaths by registration date. This can be subject to delays but it at least allows a ball park check. The NRS data shows the number of deaths at age 0. Combining that with birth data gives a baseline level of baby deaths which can be compared with the level of deaths in the post-vaccine period. The number of birth registrations were impacted by lockdown so that period has been excluded from the analysis. Pre-vaccination the mortality was 0.324 per cent and after vaccines it was 0.376 per cent which amounts to an extra 28 deaths a year or a baby dying every fortnight (see figure 2). The NRS age standardised mortality rate data for deaths at age 0 shows a rise from 316 per 100,000 to 376. For Scotland’s ~50,000 births a year that works out at 30 extra deaths per year – again in line with the FoI data (see figure 3).

Figure 2: NRS data on deaths at age 0 per births
Figure 3: NRS age standardised mortality data for age 0 years. N.B. the chart is split in two for 2021 with one data point for the pre-pregnancy-vaccine period and one for the post pregnancy vaccine period.

Public Health Scotland have conveniently decided to stop publishing data on the impacts of covid. The cancer data stopped abruptly in 2022 and the neonatal death data showed another rise in July 2023. 

Figure 4: Latest Public Health Scotland neonatal death data

In England the data is less transparent. It is, however, possible to compare death registrations in those aged 0 with birth data from here and here. The mortality rate in the first year of life has risen by 27 per cent by this measure.

Many of the people whose deaths were attributed to covid had a lower life expectancy than their peers of the same age. However, if we generously assume they had an average life expectancy then for Scotland there were 13,040 years of life lost to covid. The deaths of these 65 babies amounts to more than 5,200 years of life lost and the harm is ongoing.

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Dr Clare Craig
Dr Clare Craig
Dr Clare Craig FRCPath is a Diagnostic Pathologist who worked in the NHS and reached consultant level in 2009. She was the day to day pathology lead for the cancer arm of the 100,000 Genomes Project. She contributed to HART in a personal capacity.

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