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Have the Germans proved the link between Covid vaccination and excess deaths?


THE mystery of excess deaths first came to light in January this year when a large US insurance company reported it was seeing ‘the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business’. Furthermore it was not the elderly who were dying but ‘primarily working-age people 18 to 64’. In March one of Germany’s largest statutory health insurance companies, BKK, reported frequency of vaccination complications seven times higher than indicated by the German regulatory body, the Paul Ehrlich Institute. 

In Britain, Will Jones began reporting on Office of National Statistics excess deaths data in June when he spotted 5,000 non-Covid excess deaths of the previous five weeks detailed by the ONS and asked what was behind these figures. Tracking subsequent ONS data releases, he’s continued to report on surging excess deaths data, which by July had approached 9,000 in just ten weeks and by August reached 12,500 over 14 weeks. 

It was only at this point, a couple of weeks ago, that the MSM began to get interested, with the Telegraph reporting on a ‘silent crisis of soaring excess deaths gripping Britain’. This was, the article opined, due to lockdown. Given the NHS shutdown and the collateral health damage caused by lockdown, it seemed a plausible enough argument. But the timings that Will Jones noted call the vaccine into question too. Guy Hatchard, noting a similar rise in excess deaths in New Zealand, raised the same question, and asked directly: if Covid isn’t causing them, is the jab to blame? 

Jones’s analysis of deaths by date of occurrence shows an apparent correlation with the rollout of vaccine doses in the spring booster campaign among over-75s in England. He’s noted too that the causes of death appear to be largely related to diseases of the heart and blood vessels. With a call by senior scientists for the Government to investigate these thousands of unexplained excess deaths going unheeded, the concern has been that the signals in the data suggesting ‘something is not quite right’ would stay as that – concerning signals.

But maybe not. There is now what looks like the first confirmation of the correlation. An all-important blog posted by Eugyppius on August 27 reports on an exhaustive study of excess German mortality in 2020 to 2022, which you can study here. It finds that excess deaths are tightly correlated with mass vaccination, and provides much harder evidence for that putative correlation.

It is a preprint research paper by Christof Kuhbandner (a psychologist at Regensburg) and Matthias Reitzner (a statistician at Osnabrück) who have applied sophisticated actuarial analysis to the publicly available all-cause mortality data provided by the German government. Eugyppius comments: ‘When you account for historical mortality trends, the virus no longer looks so dangerous and the vaccines no longer look so great.’ 

He quotes from the research paper abstract: In 2020, the observed number of deaths was close to the expected number with respect to the empirical standard deviation. By contrast, in 2021, the observed number of deaths was two empirical standard deviations above the expected number. The high excess mortality in 2021 was almost entirely due to an increase in deaths in the age groups between 15 and 79 and started to accumulate only from April 2021 onwards. A similar mortality pattern was observed for stillbirths with an increase of about 11 per cent in the second quarter of the year 2021.

 ‘Something must have happened in April 2021 that led to a sudden and sustained increase in mortality in the age groups below 80 years, although no such effects on mortality had been observed during the Covid-19 pandemic so far.’

What happened in April 2021 was the beginning of mass vaccination across Germany.

Eugyppius quotes from their commentary: ‘The significant excess mortality in December 2020 continues slightly in January 2021, and then is mostly compensated until March 2021. That is, by the end of March, the cumulative excess mortality was close to zero.’

Eugyppius comments: ‘These are what the funeral industry would call “pull-forward” deaths. In Germany, the virus mainly kills people who are about to die anyway, such that mortality spikes are followed by counterbalancing mortality deficits.’

The authors continue: ‘In April and May 2021, a significant increase in excess mortality is observed, followed by a decrease up to August. However . . . the increase in excess mortality in April and May is not compensated for. In September there is again a significant excess mortality, which increases in November and is more than doubled in December 2021.’

Most interesting, Eugyppius says, are the specific mortality correlations by age bracket. ‘The authors note the “further hint” that the vaccines are implicated in these deaths, “is the fact that the age group 0–29 has a peak in the excess mortality in June 2021 instead of April 2021”, precisely when these younger cohorts were lining up for their first dose.’

Eugyppius comments: ‘This makes the oldest Germans a useful control, as they are the most sensitive to virus-associated mortality, and the least sensitive to vaccine-associated mortality. Thus, to anyone who objects that it’s really the April case spike that’s making the vaccines look bad here, or that it’s Delta causing those problems in the fall, the reply is simple: The olds aren’t dying in April or September 2021, just the youngs. What kills mainly the youngs and spares mainly the olds? The answer is not SARS-2.’

You can read Eugyppius’s full article and commentary here. 

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Kathy Gyngell
Kathy Gyngell
Kathy is Editor of The Conservative Woman. She is @kathygyngelltcw on GETTR and is back on Twitter.

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