LAST week we ran a poll asking for your prediction for October 31. What did you think would be the Brexit outcome on that date: leaving the EU with a deal, leaving without a deal (no-deal) or not leaving at all?

Your answers were quite surprising. The largest proportion – a full 46 per cent of you – thought we’d be leaving with no deal, 38 per cent not leaving at all and 16 per cent with a deal.

I hope those confident that we will finally break free are right, but I wonder what they think now, a week later?

I would have thought it optimistic even a week ago, but now I’d be putting the odds the other way around. Today I fear the chance of no-deal is once again shifting out of sight and over the horizon, less because of Parliament’s machinations to scupper the option, but more because of Boris’s return to Brussels today to meet Juncker and Barnier accompanied by his Olly Robbins replacement, David Frost. To me (and my colleagues at TCW) this suggests a BRINO sell-out could be in the offing. 

We can but hope that the PM is playing a game of double bluff, just going through the motions with the EU, and that he is a true Brexiteer at heart, not the Remainer who backed Leave only to further his career – the accusation of a vengeful David Cameron in what looks like a pretty unedifying attempt to get maximum publicity for his memoirs.

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