In response to Cerberus’s Election Watch: Corbyn’s Young Turks need to turn out in their droves to stop May, BSO wrote:
The political class says Corbyn is having a good election when, in fact, it has been one car crash after another. I sense a lot of élite resentment towards May is behind this. So the dementia tax gaffe was rightly seized upon. May’s interviews are all about damage limitation, particularly the Andrew Neil outing, where she fended off unanswerable grenade after unanswerable grenade. It was a little like blood sports. We have had no exploration of what she actually stands for or what version of Toryism she aspires to. Which is as it should be, as it makes no difference. People don’t vote for policies.
In wake of Manchester the election became even more surreal. A nation that should have demanded a state of emergency, arrest and expulsions, military action against Isis bases in Libya, was lulled, cajoled and herded by the political class into demanding inaction and business as usual; or at least that was the BBC massaging. It has become unacceptable to be beastly to Muslims so a mosque with a track record for extremism and jihadi nurturing, aided and abetted by MI5 and MI6 to fight Gaddafi under the noses of the Plod, is now labelled a moderate victim of Islamophobia and given uninterrupted access to Radio Four’s PM programme.
Watching the BBC panel the other night, I counted two centre-lefts (Tory and Liberal), 3 hard lefts (Green, Labour and SNP) and one centre-right (Ukip). Our mainstream politics is so skewed that Ukip demanding Muslim integration in the wake of Manchester is racist. The audience exploded with delight at the multiple interruptions of Paul Nuttall who has, despite detractors, grown into his difficult role during the campaign. He is quite right: the tide will go out and the tide will come back.
May has run her campaign offering very little to people keen to vote for a hard Brexit and socially conservative future. Now outlier pollsters are reporting a narrowing Tory lead. Brexit, Ukip and Conservative sympathisers will not risk it and probably reward May on June 8th. The students, teachers, nurses and council workers will rally to the Tooting Popular Front, of course.
I’m in a Labour seat and yesterday my decent, moderate Labour MP came a knocking. He is desperate for my vote and is a good constituency MP who despises Corbyn. On key issues he emailed constituents for feedback and has been courteous with my responses. On things I care about, he voted the way I would. I tried to let him down gently. It was a reminder of how unfair politics is. I’m convinced he will be swept away. In which case that will be 50 more seats for May and, at the very least, a 75-seat majority.
But here is why the polls are wrong. There are micro elections going on across the country and in each one quite different moods and perceptions prevail in multiple micro electorates. Many moderate and conservative voters really have no voice or purchase in the mainstream television media. Their views are demonised and so are seldom aired. Consequently, Labour will fall behind the Conservatives in Scotland and the SNP will lose about 7-10 seats. Corbyn’s offer of a coalition and a second referendum to Sturgeon will cause severe damage to Scottish Labour. In the north of England, significant numbers of Labour voters will not vote Corbyn and will sit on their hands. Ukip voters will tactically vote Conservative due to fears about Brexit.
Something similar will happen in the Midlands. Wales is slightly different as the Labour party has some independence from the Corbyn camp, but Brexit has lots of support as well and I assume again Ukip voters will tactically vote Conservative. Incidentally, is any Labour candidate outside London actually campaigning with Corbyn on their literature?
The Southwest will have a big impact on the outcome as it did in the last election. I predict a Liberal wipe-out due to them miss-reading the mood among former Remainers. After the London media mafia curb stomping on Farron at the start of the campaign, Corbyn will pile up what votes he gets in already safe seats and in London
I have not followed Northern Ireland, but I think pro-Republican anti Brexit sentiment will be cancelled out by its pro-Union, pro Brexit mirror image. The only issue that might disrupt this would be Green voters going back to the Labour party in marginals. The London factor producing some Labour gains? A poor final few days for Theresa? As I recall in 2015, Tory campaign chief Lynton Crosby just continued the messaging right up to the last knowing many people will have paid no notice up until then. We need to remember the last council elections saw a sustained swing to May of 8 per cent.
To conclude, the opinion polls underestimate the Conservative lead; the commentators and leftist audiences on BBC/Question Time and ITV over-estimate support for the loons. Indeed, the discussion has become how much more debt should we go into, how much more spending should be taken on, how many more bank holidays (4) should we award ourselves? We must take back “our wealth!” The parties have internal polling and I am certain Len McCluskey’s marker of not going below 200 Labour MPs tells you what is really happening.
Strong, Secure, Stable and Certain does not play well when Isis blows up your children. May’s vulnerability is her real record at the Home Office and the Tories’ general rejection of sound money and limited government. She has cut herself so much slack that she looks bland. Crosby has spotted this and hence the “Money Tree” messaging more latterly.
But mature floating voters are not going to vote for Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. That leads us to the turnout among new young, left-leaning voters who did not vote in the past. I doubt that the Labour machine is fit for purpose; Seamus Milne is not Mandelson. All of the young Corbynistas of the workers’ revolution are probably already signed up. I think the rest will not vote. And even if they do have a higher turnout, they have to be located in key marginals, not big university towns that are already in Labour hands.
Nope. I expect to sit down and watch a landslide 75-100 seat majority. It could well be a huge landslide of 130+ that sweeps away Clegg, Robertson, and Lucas. The landslide will probably guarantee a SOFT Brexit. Whatever the outcome, Momentum and McCluskey will have cleansed themselves of their moderates, like my local MP; which was their intention all along.