In response to Adrian Hill: Don’t believe the Times – Nigel is doing just fine,
A significant distortion in the YouGov survey is due to the fact that the Brexit Party was only put on the questionnaire under ‘Other’. Respondents had to look for Brexit Party after pondering over Conservative, Labour and LibDem – search for ‘Other’ and then find Brexit Party. I used to consider YouGov as a halfway respectable polling company. This egregiously worthless poll will persuade me to regard all their polls with more scepticism than usual. What a sham game! A huge con trick.
Peter Gardner wrote:
There is a new factor. It is now OK for MPs to say openly they want to stop Brexit and defy the referendum vote. There is no longer any need for subterfuge. Contempt for public opinion is almost fashionable in Westminster. I think that explains the Lib Dems’ success in the Euro elections. They might have more than one policy but they have only one that matters: stopping Brexit. Similarly Nigel Farage is quite right to keep the contest, for the time being, to a single issue.
So, ceteris paribus, because nothing on Brexit has changed – UK is still in the EU exactly as it was in June 2016 – we would end up with 48 per cent voting for Remain parties/MPs and 52 per cent voting for Leave parties/MPs. The electoral boundaries in the referendum would have translated that into over 60 per cent of MPs being Leavers, but now MPs feel no qualms about ignoring their voters.
Nigel Farage has, with great insight, anticipated this and defined the next big single issue: parliament versus the people. None of the polls have yet addressed this issue so they are all of secondary importance. What you don’t need great insight to see is that a party backing the people would win a landslide. The Tories still don’t see it.
In the next half hour I’m heading down to Peterborough to deliver leaflets. Apparently there are 500 people who have notified that they are going to help out today. The main two parties could only ever dream of this. I wonder how the Times could explain such enthusiasm? Will they report on it? Oh well, it’s outside London, so they would need a map to find it.