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The not-so exceptional year of Covid


NOW that 2020 has ended, we are in a position to see what a whole year with Covid has been like. Here are whole-year mortality figures since 2006.

In other words, as TCW and others have been saying, the death rate in 2020 is unexceptional. 

Official figures say that as well, but the information is buried and headlines focus on the worst bits.

From the Office for National Statistics

‘November 2020 had the highest mortality rate (1,057.4 deaths per 100,000 people) since November 2004 (1,180.3 deaths per 100,000 people) but remained significantly lower than November 2001 (1,227.9 deaths per 100,000). The mortality rate in November 2020 was 1,265.9 deaths per 100,000 males (compared with 1,491.1 in November 2001) and 885.4 deaths per 100,000 females (compared with 1,045.7 in November 2001).’

There is no mention of whole-year mortality which allows us to see total mortality in perspective and takes into account the low figures from July to September.

Basically the government is deliberately concealing that the so-called ‘pandemic’ is of no significant magnitude. In the ‘best years’ from 2010 to 2019, the chance of an over-65 surviving the year was 95.7 per cent. In 2020 it dropped almost imperceptibly to 95.5 per cent. For reference, in 2006-2009 it was 95.2 per cent. Did we panic from 2006-9? I don’t think so. 

You can see my full analysis of the data and the sources it is drawn from here.

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Mark Ellse
Mark Ellse
Mark Ellse is a physicist and author. He is a former headmaster, independent school inspector and A level chief examiner.

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