WHILE we’re enjoying the winter cold, our energy bills mount and we wonder if we will have a continuous electricity supply come the evening, our minds might turn to the sheer stupidity of successive governments which have failed to guarantee that lights will stay on and homes stay heated in winter while abundant supplies of unexploited, cheap energy lie under our very feet.
Fear not: a white knight (or rather a white lady – may I write that?) may be about to charge to the rescue in the shape of Professor Valentina Zharkova of the University of Northumbria. The professor’s fields are applied mathematics, plasma physics, pattern recognition, solar-terrestrial physics and solar activity. What she has to say may be about to blow a hole in the AGW nonsense, taking down Net Zero in the process. You can hear her here.
Many readers will be familiar with the 11-year cycle of solar activity in which the number and size of sunspots waxes and wanes. The overall number of sunspots also varies between successive solar cycles in a regular pattern. This pattern created the succession of historic solar minimums such as the Maunder Grand Solar Minimum and the later Dalton Minimum. The Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum occurred during the period known as the Little Ice Age, which lasted roughly from the Middle Ages to the end of the 19th century. Professor Zharkova says we have just entered the Modern Grand Solar Minimum of Solar Cycles 25-27.
She explains that sunspots almost always occur in pairs because each spot is in fact a local magnetic pole. There is one north and one south in each spot pair which form a magnetic field 1,000 times greater than the overall Solar Background Magnetic Force. All sunspots in a solar hemisphere have the same magnetic configuration. The sunspot magnetic force is not a supra-surface arc, it completes a circle within the solar mass. As the 11-year cycle progresses and the number of sunspots reduces, they tend towards the solar equator.
A feature of the 11-year solar cycle is the solar dynamo, the reversal of the Solar Background Magnetic Force brought about by the local magnetic fields of the sunspots. In short the magnetic north and south of the sun invert so that the polarity of the sun’s magnetic field is reversed at the end of the cycle. After two cycles, 22 years, a magnetic cycle is complete and the magnetic north is back at the solar north.
Professor Zharkova has discovered that when the magnetic north is at the solar south pole it correlates with increased volcanic activity on Earth. Hold that thought.
The Modern Grand Solar Minimum of 2020-2053 will reduce global temperatures to such an extent that Earth will enter another ‘little ice age’. The ice-caps will extend, glaciers will advance, the Thames and the canals of Amsterdam will freeze in winter and there will be a significant enough cooling to have an adverse effect on food production.
Already temperature has started to decrease from a peak in June 2019. We have seen that both polar ice caps are expanding and there was snow in July 2019 on the Carpathian Mountains of central Europe, which are not particularly high, and again in August this year. In Amman, Jordan, in January 2020 there was a temperature of minus 2℃ and snowfall, the first in 150 years. Arctic sea-ice thickness has grown since 2018.
If we add to this the effect on terrestrial volcanic activity due to solar magnetic pole reversal there could be enough volcanic ash in the atmosphere to increase the Earth’s albedo (reflectivity) and further contribute to cooling. Snow in June in the global north is possible and there may even be a year without a summer such as occurred in 1816 during the Dalton Minimum.
We are still in solar cycle 25, which is the lowest for sunspot activity in 200 years. It is in solar cycle 26 which starts about 2027 and which marks the end of the Modern Solar Maximum that things will become interesting. The reverse polarity of the Sun’s magnetic field will also occur in cycle 26 so there will a maximum of volcanic eruptions between 2031 and 2042. Mount Pinatubo’s eruption in 1991, also during a period of solar southern polarity, put enough ash into the atmosphere to reduce global temperatures by 0.5℃ at the surface.
The next factor Professor Zharkova talks about is Solar Inertial Motion. Having seen that none of the Milankovitch cycles (the collective effects of changes in the Earth’s movements on its climate over thousands of years) would fit what she observed, she found a fit with the Hallstatt cycle which has a periodicity of about 2,200 years. In the course of a Hallstatt cycle the distance between the sun and Earth varies. In simple terms, what happens is that the planets do not revolve around the centre of the sun. They revolve around a combined Earth-sun centre of gravity called the vari-centre.
The startling thing is that the sun, due to the influences of the major planets, also revolves around this vari-centre so on the upswing of the Hallstatt cycle the Earth receives progressively more solar energy and warms up. This has been happening since the end of the Maunder Minimum and through the Dalton Minimum and it explains the gentle warming seen in recent times. We are at present about 300-350 years into the Modern Hallstatt Cycle.
Once the forthcoming little ice age is over the Earth will again experience warming, possibly quite rapid warming, due to the continuing upswing of the Hallstatt Cycle. This should lead to a few hundred years which will be very similar to the Medieval Warm Period before it starts to cool once more. And carbon dioxide has nothing to do with it.
The AGW protagonists refuse to accept the closure of the distance between the sun and Earth in Solar Inertial Motion, despite its being a well-known phenomenon in astrophysics. Of course they don’t, for obvious reasons. Furthermore, the IPCC ignores Professor Zharkova’s work. However, if she is right we’ll know for sure within ten years, possibly within five. Bang goes 2030.
The bad news is we haven’t got long to prepare and there can be little confidence that any UK government likely to be elected in the near future will produce a satisfactory energy and food security plan to see us through the next 35 years. So, get an axe to cut down those recently planted trees for fuel, buy some animal traps and invest in fur-lined parkas and mukluks.