THE pressure on people in their forties to have the experimental Covid vaccine started yesterday after what newspapers are positively describing as the government’s record-breaking day for second doses for the older age groups. And, surprise, surprise, the papers are also uncritically reporting the ‘scientists’ as considering prioritising ‘regular travellers who are exempt from quarantine rules, with diplomats, Premier League footballers and hauliers among those to possibly be vaccinated before schedule’.
What need is there for the majority of perfectly healthy people aged 40-plus to have the vaccine when they are literally at no risk from the disease?
If you don’t believe me and would rather believe the Government, be my guest.
Checking Google I found that the Government has helpfully approved an Oxford University Covid risk calculator available to all.
For interest I thought I’d check out the risk for an average white 45-year-old female with no health conditions or history, 5ft 6in (168cm) and 9st 10lb (62 kilos).
This is her risk of death or of hospitalisation. The Risk Table is explained here:
The table shows the absolute risk of catching and dying from COVID-19 over a 90-day period based on data from the first peak of the pandemic. There is a comparison with the risk for a person of the same age and sex but with no risk factors. The relative risk is the absolute risk divided by this average risk.
| Absolute risk (a) | Absolute risk with no risk factors (b) | Relative risk (a/b) | |||
| COVID associated death | 0.0016% | 1 in 62500 | 0.0015% | 1 in 66667 | 1.0667 |
| COVID associated hospital admission | 0.0292% | 1 in 3425 | 0.0311% | 1 in 3215 | 0.9389 |
In other words in a crowd of 10,000 people with the same risk factors, one or fewer are likely to catch and die from COVID-19 and three to be admitted to hospital during a 90-day period similar to the recent peak.
Do you think most 45-year-olds told that the risk was somewhere around there – obviously greater if they were fatter – would think they needed to be vaccinated?
Feel free to discuss this or anything else on your mind.
