AN important article published by the Daily Sceptic on Saturday deserves our attention. It provides the evidence for what so many have been observing around us, and suspecting is the general case, which is that vaccine effectiveness is continuing to fall. In fact it shows that the triple-vaccinated are now up to three times more likely to be infected with Covid. This is based on evidence drawn from no less a source than the Government’s own UK Health Security Authority (UKHSA) data. The analysis is carried out by a senior government scientist writing under the pseudonym of Amanuensis. He observes:
‘We’re clearly in a situation where the Covid vaccinations haven’t solved the Covid epidemic, and might even have made things worse (deaths). It certainly isn’t the case that this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated, when 72 per cent of hospitalisations and 87 per cent of deaths are in the vaccinated. Of course, the devil is in the detail, and in this specific case the variation between different age groups (older people are more likely to be vaccinated but also more likely to die). This week’s data indicate that infections continue to tumble for all age groups and vaccination status – the December and January Omicron wave appears to be receding fast. The data continue to show that for nearly all age groups the more vaccine doses you have the higher your risk of infection with Covid.
‘Two age groups stand out as different from the others – those aged under 18 and over 80. For those aged under 18 it is likely that the higher infection rate in the unvaccinated at least partially reflects their more recent vaccination (for all doses). It isn’t clear what is going on for those aged over 80 (and, to a certain extent, those aged 70-80). It is always worth remembering that the immune system of those under the age of about 12 and over the age of about 65 isn’t the same as for the majority of adults and you might expect to see different disease patterns and characteristics in these groups.
‘From the infection rate data we can again estimate the vaccine effectiveness against infection – negative for all age groups other than those aged under 18, and significantly so for those having taken a booster dose.’
The writer says there is enough data to present graphs of vaccine effectiveness against time (this year) for all age ranges – and this he presents in graphs for those aged under 50 and those over 50.
His conclusion is that ‘one dose of vaccine appears now to offer a relatively low but stable increase in the risk of infection, two doses offer a stable but higher risk of infection, while the risk of infection appears still to be increasing for those that have had a booster dose – those in their 40s being up to three times more likely to be infected than the unvaccinated. The silver lining in these data is that the impact of the vaccines in terms of increasing infection on those aged under 18 appears to be low; I hope that this reflects their robust innate immune system and isn’t simply because their recent vaccination means that there hasn’t been time for the increased risks to emerge.’
The article deserves to be read in full. You can find it here.
