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Vaccine versus natural immunity … a Covid study our politicians must not ignore


The writer is in New Zealand 

A STUDY of unvaccinated Covid victims has produced significant results which objectively should change the exclusively pro-mRNA inoculation policies which currently dominate the world.  

It was carried out by scientists in the tiny Gulf state of Qatar, working with counterparts in New York. Ninety per cent of Qataris are vaccinated, but the study authors tracked several hundred thousand individuals who had not had the jab and checked how well they were protected from infection, reinfection, and serious Covid illness.  

The scientists began by noting: ‘The future of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic hinges on virus evolution and duration of immune protection of natural infection against reinfection.’ 

In other words: How well does natural immunity work?  

They found effectiveness of primary infection against severe, critical, or fatal Covid-19 reinfection was 97.3 per cent, irrespective of the variant of primary infection or reinfection, and with no evidence for waning. 

The authors concluded that protection at this 97.3 per cent level will last for three years, or possibly longer, depending on the course of Covid viral evolution. 

The resounding significance of this is that once infected by Covid, if you are unvaccinated you are very highly protected from serious illness even if reinfected. Following initial infection, Covid becomes no more dangerous to the unvaccinated than other coronaviruses such as the common cold. 

Conversely, an unrelated study of five million clients of US Veterans Affairs health services found that, for the vaccinated, reinfection resulted in more serious health outcomes than their initial infection.  

In other words, vaccination – including boosters – did not decrease the risk of reinfection, but increased the severity of symptoms. Nor did vaccination provide any more protection against reinfection than the unvaccinated had.  

These two studies are not strictly comparable in every sense, because the two groups are demographically very different. For example, the US Veterans were already enrolled in a health support programme, which suggests some might already be ill. Nevertheless, the studies together should correct the current presumption of governments that mRNA vaccination is the only way out of the pandemic. 

But try telling that to the politicians. Boris Johnson recently announced new measures to encourage booster jabs, saying their rollout will ‘keep our defences strong’ over autumn and winter and ensure ‘Covid can never haunt us in the same way again’.  

Last week, Canadian Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos said: ‘Canadians will be required to get a booster shot every nine months for the foreseeable future. If you’ve already received a first booster, that’s great, but check if you are eligible for a second or third booster.’ 

The New Zealand government has announced that it is finalising arrangements for citizens to receive boosters at even shorter intervals. 

These statements illustrate how politicians everywhere and their health advisers have become detached from the realities of Covid science research publishing.  

The unvaccinated continue to be blamed for the ills of the pandemic – they remain convenient scapegoats – while boosters have been accepted as the gold standard approach.  

Yet the study from Qatar shows the unvaccinated have made a generally wise choice, which – assuming they survived initial infection, as almost everyone does – is going to protect them in future. By contrast, the vaccinated appear to be facing health challenges which are possibly only going to get worse.  

The principal error of governments and their advisers early on in the pandemic was to accept an unsupported doctrine created by mRNA vaccine manufacturers that many serious outcomes following a jab were unrelated to vaccination.  

Vaccine trial results and post-vaccine reporting showed that a significant number of participants suffered from a wide range of conditions, including heart disease, strokes, neurological illness, auto-immune disease, sudden-onset cancers, kidney and liver disease. Most of these were dismissed as unrelated to vaccination.  

It was a misleading and fatal error on the part of governments to accept these assurances of vaccine manufacturers without undertaking sufficient independent assessment. 

Now we have arrived at a state of double jeopardy. Covid has gone through viral evolution which has significantly bypassed the protection of mRNA vaccination. Conjointly, the long-term adverse effects of mRNA vaccination appear to be dramatically increasing all-cause mortality, even among working-age people.  

Politicians seem sadly out of touch and unable to process this information, and are still pointing to mRNA vaccination as the only way ahead. 

New Zealand data on deaths with Covid points to some underlying trends. People who stopped at just one or two doses of mRNA vaccine appear to have gradually lowering mortality rates. Back in March, they accounted for 36 per cent of the population, but 49 per cent of the deaths. In July, they make up 33 per cent of the population, but only 24 per cent of the deaths.  

Conversely in March, the boosted made up 50 per cent of the population,  but only 20 per cent of the deaths. Now in July they make up 52 per cent of the population, but 62 per cent of the deaths. So they appear to be suffering increased mortality.  

The unvaccinated made up 15 per cent of the population in March, but 31 per cent of the deaths. In July, they still make up 15 per cent of the population, but only 14 per cent of the deaths. They appear to have gained a level of natural protection, possibly due to increased natural immunity. 

Bear in mind that New Zealand is a small country, the absolute number of deaths is small, and the figures here include deaths ‘with Covid’ rather than just deaths ‘because of Covid’.  

These figures come directly from the NZ Ministry of Health, but there are a number of statistical reporting inconsistencies which make these trends subject to significant margins of error.  

These figures do not include deaths of people who have not had Covid within 28 days of their death. Therefore they do not include deaths of those who have suffered adverse reactions to vaccination. Please note: All-cause mortality unrelated to Covid dwarfs the rate of Covid deaths. 

This data and recently published studies should be giving our political rulers pause for thought, but a level of panic appears to have become attached to government thinking. Announcing, as Boris Johnson did, that boosters will ensure ‘Covid can never haunt us in the same way again’ is plainly incorrect and misleading. 

Moreover, prejudice against the unvaccinated of the sort that is being encouraged in many countries is misguided. The pandemic has become overly politicised. There are too many vested financial and ideological interests seeking to control the narrative. Sorting out the successful way ahead is going to require cool heads and rational scientific assessment.  

There are increasingly sound arguments to pause vaccination and undertake broader research that is not hobbled by preconceptions about mRNA vaccine safety. It seems increasingly likely that mRNA vaccination is contributing to immune deficiency. 

Unless there is a rethink, governments will continue to adversely affect national longevity through a policy that has failed to take account of evolving Covid science research.  

Governments wield enormous influence over individual health decisions. It is their duty to exercise this power with great care, compassion, understanding, balance, and scientific insight. This is not currently the case. 

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Guy Hatchard
Guy Hatchard
Guy Hatchard PhD is a former senior manager at Genetic ID, a global food testing and certification company. He lives in New Zealand.

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