Tuesday, April 16, 2024
HomeCOVID-19Vaccines have saved 20million lives? What rubbish

Vaccines have saved 20million lives? What rubbish


A MODELLING study from Imperial College London, recently published as a preprint (not peer-reviewed) in the Lancet, purports to demonstrate that the Covid vaccines saved up to 20million lives in 2021. The authors excluded China because of ‘its unique position as the origin of the detected pandemic’ (?) and ‘its large influence on estimates of deaths averted stemming from its population size’ (!)

The annual number of global deaths is around 60million. Although the UN has apparently not yet reported definite numbers for 2020 and 2021, any major swing would certainly have been noticed and widely discussed by now.

The Imperial College authors want us to believe that without the Covid vaccines the world’s total death toll would have risen by at least a third in 2021 (had they included China, their result would have come close to an increase of 50 per cent), and that this rise would have been entirely due to Covid-19. How does this not seem completely ludicrous to anybody with a remnant of common and clinical sense?

Imperial College and many others have become very good at developing acrobatic models which have no connection whatsoever with reality.

The reality is that there is not a shred of clinical evidence that the COVID vaccines save lives – overall mortality has never been examined in any of their trials and studies.

The reality is that it may be  conceptually impossible to prevent the deaths of a cohort of people (the ‘corona deaths’) who die at an average age equal to or higher than the average age of death in the general population. Be that as it may, any serious epidemiological model would have to calculate and discuss the number of life years gained by ‘saving’ all those lives.

The reality is that any medical intervention has side effects. The model from Imperial College does not take this into account at all.

There is also ever-growing evidence that the Covid vaccines cause a number of very serious side-effects. The grim reality is that we must face the possibility that their net effect on mortality – and above all on life years gained – is in fact negative.

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Manfred Horst
Manfred Horst
Manfred Horst, MD, PhD, MBA, studied medicine in Munich, Montpellier and London. He spent most of his career in the pharmaceutical industry, most recently in the research & development department of Merck & Co/MSD. Since 2017, he had been working as an independent consultant for pharma, biotech and healthcare companies (

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