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HomeCOVID-19Vaccines saved 100,000 lives? Er, no, Minister

Vaccines saved 100,000 lives? Er, no, Minister


PUBLIC Health England and Cambridge University claim that coronavirus vaccines have prevented more than 100,000 deaths. Can this be true? In a recent post on the British government’s website, Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at PHE, states: ‘It is remarkable that the vaccine programme may now have prevented over 100,000 deaths in England alone.’ 

Note the use of the inconclusive word ‘may’ which could just as easily mean ‘may not’. 

Imagine if a child went missing and the police chief leading the search told a press conference: It is remarkable that due to our incredible investigation team, the missing child may be found alive and well.’ 

But officially approved scientists oftenget away with espousing similar absurdities unchallenged.

The same government bulletin quotes Health Secretary Sajid Javid: ‘Today’s new data showing that vaccines have saved more than 100,000 lives in England is phenomenal and testament to the UK’s vaccination programme.’

No, Minister, it doesn’t.

‘The vaccines have saved lives’ and ‘the vaccines may have saved lives’ do not mean the same thing and should not be used interchangeably. An estimate is not a result. How can we be expected to trust these people with what goes inside our bodies when they are so casual about the truth? And what is their basis for suggesting that the vaccines ‘may’ have saved 100,000 lives anyway? 

‘The results were produced using the real-time pandemic surveillance model from PHE and Cambridge University’s MRC Biostatistics Unit, looking at the direct and indirect impact of the COVID-19 vaccination programme on infections and mortality.’

Ah, modelling.

‘The total was calculated by comparing the estimated impact of vaccination on infection and mortality against a worst-case scenario where no vaccines and no additional non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place to reduce infections and mortality.’

Failing to take into account Covid’s obvious seasonality, the mystic modellers have conjured a worst-case scenario out of thin air. Figure 5 on Public Health England’s Covid-19 vaccine surveillance report for Week 34 ludicrously assumes that without the vaccines, coronavirus-linked mortality would have surpassed the January peak of 1,285 Covid deaths (seven-day rolling average) in the summer.

The biggest flaw in this modelling is the assumption that lockdowns and other pandemic mitigation measures, such as those in summer 2020, were effective at preventing what would otherwise have been a catastrophe. ‘The no-vaccination scenario assumes that no other interventions are implemented to reduce incidence and mortality. Therefore, the findings presented here should be interpreted as the impact of the vaccination programme on infection and mortality assuming no additional non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented. In practice it is impossible to predict what interventions would have been implemented in the absence of vaccination, although it is reasonable to assume that lockdown measures would have remained in place for substantially longer.’

The scientists seem to forget that we had a ‘no-vaccination scenario’ last year when British society was largely physically open. While there were many demoralising restrictions in place, international travel was more flexible and crucially there were no Covid vaccines. People were moving about, shopping, drinking together in parks in glorious weather, going to house parties and illegal raves. Some pubs and cafes were less obsessed with being ‘Covid-secure’ than others. Masks were made mandatory at that time, though the evidence for their use in public settings is ‘weak’ (to quote HMG) and many have continued to wear them voluntarily since the muzzle mandate was lifted on July 19.

If we look at daily Covid-19 deaths, (deaths for any reason within 28 days of a positive test) there were 98 on August 30, 2021, the most recent date for which we have full data at the time of writing. If we look back at August 30, 2020, there were six Covid deaths in the entire UK. With nearly 42million citizens fully vaccinated, the most recent daily death toll is over 16 times what it was at the same time last year. While no more than 15 people died with Covid in a single day in August 2020, no fewer than 73 died with Covid-19 within a single day so far in August 2021. 

These figures are consistent with the latest ONS numbers for all-cause mortality in England and Wales. In the week ending August 13 there were 10,372 deaths from all causes. In the equivalent week of 2020, there were 8,945. Yet by August 13 the Vaccine Surveillance Report was estimating that 84,600 Covid deaths had been prevented by the vaccines.

Further afield, Sweden last month suffered no more than five Covid deaths a day, roughly the same as August 2020. The Swedish state never imposed a lockdown nor mandated face coverings, even allowing the nightclubs to reopen from summer to late October last year. Sweden has a lower Covid and excess death rate than roughly half of Europe including Baltic neighbours Poland and Lithuania, as well as other countries that went for strict early lockdowns such as Belgium and the Czech Republic. While Sweden has a higher overall death rate than super-vaccinatedIsrael, Israel’s daily death figures from last month have been as high as 55, which is proportionally even worse than the UK’s recent numbers.

Belarus refused to impose any restrictions on its citizens whatsoever, keeping the nightclubs, sports stadiums, and Christmas markets open. Its excess death figures, though quite bad, are less bad than those of its neighbours Lithuania and Russia, along with Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Serbia, all of which imposed much stronger measures including lockdowns and mask mandates in certain public areas. The highest excess deaths globally are in Peru, which closed its borders and imposed one of the earliest, longest and most draconian lockdowns in the world.

Texas ended its mask mandate and reopened society at 100 per cent capacity on March 2 this year, when only 6.8 per cent of Texans were fully vaccinated, compared with 47.9 per cent now.

Joe Biden denounced Texan Governor Greg Abbott’s decision to free his people as ‘neanderthal thinking,’ and the US medical establishment watched in horror as the baseball stadiums and nightclubs of Austin, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio filled up with those deplorable, freedom-loving Americans. 

But even Dr Anthony Fauci found himself lost for answers when Covid cases and deaths in the lone starstate steadily declined to a consistently low rate for four months. In terms of Covid deaths per million, Texas ranks 23rd out of America’s 50 states. This is nowhere near the catastrophic ‘worst-case scenario’ on which the draconian measures of the last 18 months were officially justified and accepted.

Given the real-world evidence (reinforced by a number of major studies) that the restrictions have little if any significant benefit in terms of mitigating coronavirus, we can safely assume that the vaccines have not averted what would otherwise have been a Covid catastrophe. 

This is not the first time the miracle vaccine has been oversold. Early this year, as vaccines became widely available, scientists and the MSM introduced the concept of ‘variants’ not only to justify indefinite restrictions but also to portray the unvaccinated as hazardous ‘variant factories’ and thus justify vaccinating everyone in the low-risk groups under threat of ‘consequences’.

BBC article from July claimed that ‘the vaccine is reducing cases’ on the grounds that between February 1 and June 22, 58 per cent of the 92,029 confirmed Delta variant cases occurred in completely unvaccinated people, while only 8 per cent were among the fully vaccinated. The article cited a Public Health England document titled ‘SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England’.

But it did not tell us what we really needed to know, which is what proportion of the vaccinated and the unvaccinated were tested. It is worth noting that from March 8 up to 8.9million school children, all of whom were ineligible for vaccination at the time, were being subjected to twice-weekly testing. If 8.9million tests were carried out twice a week for 16 weeks before that article was published, that could have been 284,800,000 tests. It is possible that an exceptionally high proportion of those being tested were unvaccinated.

The article states: ‘For context, by the start of June more than half of adults in the UK were fully vaccinated. If the vaccines weren’t helping, we would expect them to make up more than half the cases.’ This segment excludes children, but the Public Health England document containing the 92,029 cases does not. Talk about misleading.

Among those who actually died, 50 were fully vaccinated (the article admits), 18 had received one dose (the article omits) and 38 were unvaccinated. That is actually a large proportion of deaths in the vaccinated group (44 per cent), and a clear majority of these deaths were in those who had received at least one dose. We cannot draw conclusions because we do not know what percentage of the vaccinated and the unvaccinated were being tested, but the obsessive mass testing of children that occurred in that time period strongly suggests that the unvaccinated had a head start. Alas, we also do not know how many of these deaths were due to Covid, for these Covid deaths are loosely defined as dying ‘within 28 days of a positive test’.

All we can be certain of is how many people are dying overall. The numbers are certainly higher than we might expect for this time of year, and no joke-shop modelling or twisted data is going to prove that they would be even higher without the vaccine. By the way, I’m not the only one who has noticed a lot of athletes collapsing on the pitch recently.

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Harry Dougherty
Harry Dougherty
Harry Dougherty is a journalist and writer.

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