2024 looks set to deliver challenges for the establishment on both sides of the Atlantic with general and presidential elections, economic difficulty not seen in a generation, and foreign policy challenges dominating the political agenda.
Both Sunak and Biden are set for immense challenges, which are likely to lead to catastrophic consequences for their reigns in Downing Street and the White House.
Economy
In welcome news for the UK Government, inflation slowed sharply to around 4 per cent in recent days. This is, of course, if you believe the official figures. A glance at your shopping bill will tell you that inflation is off the charts and the same is true in the US.
The entrepreneurial spirit in Britain is at rock bottom. The desire and willingness to set up businesses and turbocharge the economy has been suppressed by decades of Government policy aimed at curtailing entrepreneurialism, the phenomenon that built this once great nation.
The Conservative Government may not be in post for much longer, but if they are to make real inroads ahead of the next election, they must look at the problems they have caused. The unwieldy tax burden and reckless public spending must be seen to end as soon as possible.
In the US, the future of the Democrats rests on the question of whether they can prop up the economy for long enough. A devastating financial crash reminiscent of 2007 would make it very difficult for Biden and his party to cling to power, and I suspect they will not be able to.
Foreign Policy
The conflict in the Middle East appears to be tearing apart the Democrats in the US and the opposition in the UK, with neither willing to adopt a concrete position on the future of the region. The longer the conflict persists, the more difficult it will become for the Democrats and Labour Party to remain intact, with the opposition in the UK already witnessing front bench resignations that set to deepen fractures in an already hugely divided party.
Elections
2024 will present voters with a complete reset in both the UK and US which could see the establishment rocked to its core. A General Election and Presidential Election across both sides of the Atlantic is likely to see both establishment parties crumble under the weight of their own policy and economic failings during their respective times in power.
The Conservative Party’s current chaotic rein in power appears to be coming to an end. For the party of Government and economic credibility, Sunak and his cabinet have alienated the grassroots and wider electoral public to a point where it appears they are not just no longer appealing to people but any incentive to vote for them has been entirely destroyed.
In the US, whatever slither of credibility Joe Biden had has all but vanished. The Democrats appear to be propping him up at whatever cost, which is likely to be the White House and will this come sooner than expected and we see a familiar face in the form of Michelle Obama parachuted in?
The GOP has been plagued post-Trump by a dearth of political talent. It is likely that with ongoing legal proceedings that any hope of the former President succeeding in 2024 have been dashed and while Ron DeSantis appalling campaign thus far represents a big disappointment for the American right, he is still their strongest hope of the Republicans taking the White House next year.
The establishment on both sides of the Atlantic could crumble come 2024. The Conservative Party and Democratic Party look fragile in Government and amid economic and foreign policy issues that would challenge the greatest of former leaders, Sunak and Biden appear wholly out of their depth and could lead to the house of cards finally coming down.
